The brutal assassination of the most popular leader of Pakistan-Benazir Bhutto has destroyed any semblance of fairness that remained in the politics of Pakistan. There's been a lot of discussions after the Dec 27 assassination of Benazir in national and international media; predictions about the forthcoming elections; possible access of extremists to the nuclear weapons of Pakistan and conspiracy theories about the assassination of BB.

While most Pakistanis believe that the Musharraf regime was behind Bhutto’s slaying, the government has blamed Al-Qaeda and Taliban-aligned religious fundamentalists. The reality is that, the “war on terror” notwithstanding, there are close links between the military, the political establishment, the fundamentalist terrorists and the US.  Masses are pointing finger at Musharraf as he is the man who after striking deal with Bhutto, in fact lured her to return to the Pakistan, where a plan was already prepared to eliminate her.

After the hanging of Zulifqar Ali Bhutto, father of Benazir Bhutto, by Gen-Zial-ul-Haq in 1979, the recent assassination of BB is most tragic incident in the political history of Pakistan. In her life there was lot of criticism on Benazir Bhutto for striking a deal with dictator Msharraf but after her cold blooded murder she has become most respected name, a consensus Shaheed (martyred) in Pakistani politics. In the imagination of the masses she has acquired a mystical significance that is destined to be a never-ending source of inspiration in their struggles ahead.

A popular perception is that had she escaped death that day, the suicide bombers would have done her in sooner than later. Again, it matters whether she died of the gun wound or was later levered down into death. But what matters more is that she was there, facing a possible killer. Her middle class followers may insist that she died in the cause of democracy. But the millions of her admirers come from the classes below the middle sections of our society – the peasants spread across our villages, the working people, the lower sections of the lower middle classes, and of course the majority of the women of our country. They perceive her to be a princess who may already be in the process of becoming Shaheed Bibi

After the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the scenario of Pakistan politics has changed altogether. She was the only politician with international stature, who knew how to deal with Pakistani Generals, saying thereby that Generals are now stronger with their repression after the removal of Benazir from the scene.

Forthcoming General Elections
Free and fair elections on Feb 18 are the real challenge to Musharraf regime now. There is no chance for his party, PML to win in case of transparent elections. So to get his party with majority in Parliament, he had to rig elections, which would be a real blunder and may face to strong resistance. If elections are rigged and results are manipulated then there will be massive backlash and plunge the country into turmoil.

Musharraf is not even in position to postpone elections once again. In both the situations he is in real catch 22 situation. He is fast loosing popularity within country and credibility abroad after the murder of Benazir. New plans to create hung parliament are on the cards now. Musharraf is bent upon sustaining power by all means,  having the strings of the future government in his own hands. For the purpose selective and sophisticated rigging is being planned by the regime to avoid the popular resistance.  

Resentment among Smaller nationalities and provinces
After Benazir the Federation of Pakistan has become weaker. Sindh province, the power base of Benazir’s Pakistan People’s Party, is simmering with anguish and anger as the people of Sindh believe that Benazir Bhutto has been murdered by an Army, dominated by Punjabis.   For the time being the overwhelming anger has been controlled through a statement by Asif Zardari, Benazir Husband, who is also co-chairman of the PPP.

Balochistan province is another flash point. It cannot be compared to the Waziristan-Swat syndrome. It is a national or sub-national struggle of Baluchis for their perceived rights. Its strategic importance, especially its proximity to Iran, may tempt foreign powers to be lured to their shoes and mountains and terrains. But unlike East Pakistan, Baluchistan is a small population and its contiguity with the rest of the country makes the state a formidable adversary.

In a democratic dispensation, the forces of integration and cohesion get time to play their role while centrifugal forces are weakened or are dormant. Under a dictatorship the reverse is the case. Same is the case under Musharraf regime. The killing of Akber Bugti, the Baloch leader and now the assassination of Benazir has strengthened the nationalist politics in Sindh and Baluchistan.

Extremism, Talbanization
Especially after the assassination of Benazir, a serious vaccum has been created as far as powerful political leadership is concerned. Benazir was a hope for the continuity of a “democratic discourse “in the country. But now Pakistan is in real danger of transformation into another Afghanistan, as local Taliban are swooping across the North West Frontier province and currently making inroads to urban areas of Punjab. The wave of insecurity among masses is running high after the recent suicide bomb attack in Lahore, the capital of Punjab. The popular perception is that Musharraf is not sincere in handling the extremists with iron hand. He has been bluffing the West and the Mullan at the same time. And by removing Benazir from the scene he is presenting himself to US and West again as the only option to work with.

Downturn in economy, Price hike
Besides political wounds, the people of Pakistan are forced to taste the unparallel price hike of daily use items; Atta, Sugar, Ghee etc. Long queues of women and children are seen outside utility stores. The Musharraf regime has announced the rationing of the daily use items in a bid to cope with crisis. Moreover, severe lack of services like; electricity, natural gas and water also coupled with crisis of eatables. In context of the recent crisis the masses are more concerned to manage bread and butter instead of participating in political struggle against Musharraf.

The government is facing a serious downturn in economy. According to recent State Bank of Pakistan statement the economic situation is bleak. The government has to secure much higher loans in six months, originally planned to obtain in the whole year. The gap between imports and exports is going bigger and bigger. The Musharraf regime has withheld the scheduled increase in oil prices in order to give relief to PML in election campaign.

Lawyers Movement
With the announcement of Elections the 11-month on-going lawyers movement against Musharraf was slowed down but after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto the movement has reemerged and back in media limelight with full strength. Musharraf regime is afraid of the movement that it is not going to take risk of releasing the detained leaders of the lawyers’ and Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.
The movement has announced the boycott of the forthcoming general elections. As it thinks that without an independent judiciary elections would be a farce. They demand that the judiciary be reinstated to position of Nov,2 2007, before the imposition of Emergency. It may be mentioned that 60 judges of the superior judiciary are detained since Nov 3, 2007 because they refused to take oath under emergency.

The movement is the only hope to continue struggle for a democracy in Pakistan.

These are the main challenges being faced by Pakistan and may continue in future also. In the wake these challenges there are less chances of Musharraf’s survival, despite the fact that US is ready to continue extend him support. There is a Pandora box of national issues, besides war on terror, awaiting Musharraf after elections.  Even if Musharraf manages desired results in elections, the situation remains uncertain and can explode, just does not know when. We are sitting on a volcano waiting to erupt.